Mankato, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

297
FXUS63 KMPX 142109
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
309 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold continues tonight with lows in the single digits.

- Periods of light snow Thursday afternoon through Friday.
  Accumulations up to 3-4" across western Wisconsin.

- Gusty winds accompany the light snow on Friday & could lead
  to low visibility from blowing snow, especially in open areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Tonight... Quiet weather continues with surface high pressure
sprawled across the region. It`ll be another cold night with
lows in the single digits and teens. Winds will be much
lighter than last night, keeping wind chills from dropping too
far below zero.

Thursday through Saturday AM... A deepening trough over the
Great Lakes will direct several shortwaves across the Upper
Midwest. This will lead to a few rounds of light snow, starting
Thursday morning in western & central Minnesota and lasting as
late as early Saturday morning across western WI. The first
round along the frontal passage looks relatively weaker, and
may not fully materialize until reaching east-central MN and
western WI around mid-late morning. About a half to 1 inch is
possible. Forecast soundings show ice nuclei becoming limited
aloft (within the dry slot of the system) Thursday afternoon.
Should lower levels remain saturated, there will potential for
light drizzle or freezing drizzle. We do not expect any
noticeable ice accretion (outside of colder, elevated surfaces),
and currently favor a lull in precipitation until Thursday
evening as wrap- around showers spread southeast from the
Dakotas and northwest MN. A burst of heavier snow is possible
during the evening commute, especially for areas near and north
of a line stretching from Morris, MN towards the Twin Cities
metro and much of western WI.

After that initial push of snow Thursday evening, precipitation
may become more on and off (snow showers) throughout the day
Friday. With northwesterly winds increasing behind the front,
this may lead to periods of low visibility from blowing snow,
especially in open areas across western & central MN. It is
worth noting that these cold air advection set ups tend to
produce wind gusts on the higher end of model output, which
would mean to expect up to around 40 to 50 mph for west-central
and southern MN.

After all is said and done, the greatest snow amounts of around
2 to 4 inches are still favored to fall across western WI.
Lesser amounts can be expected for eastern MN, around 1 to 2
inches, and generally an inch or less elsewhere. It may be hard
for some areas to realize any snow accumulation, especially
west-central and southern MN, with how strong winds will be
Friday. A low end Winter Weather Advisory was considered for
portions of western WI, however with amounts falling over a
longer period and only topping out around that 3-4" mark, we
have opted to not issue one at this time. What would change that
is if amounts trend higher or if the impact to travel is
expected to be worse. A separate Winter Weather Advisory may be
need for the impacts from blowing snow on Friday for west-
central and southern MN.

Saturday PM through Wednesday... Cold remains the main story
heading into next week. Highs will likely stay in the single
digits or teens all the way through the middle of next week,
with the coldest days on Saturday and Monday. Winds remain
elevated, which could keep wind chills around 10 to 20 below
even during the day both Saturday and Monday. A weak system
could bring light snow or flurries on Sunday, though QPF is
virtually zero. This more just gives us a day of relief from
the frigid temperatures Saturday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1120 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Start the TAF with clear skies & VFR. Mid-level clouds arrive
late tonight into Thursday morning ahead of our next snow chance
Thursday afternoon. We will see a deck of low stratus move into
EAU tonight with MVFR cigs, but it is expected to scatter by
sunrise Thursday AM. Northwesterly winds gust up to 20-25 kts
early this afternoon. Speeds continue to diminish below 10 kts
by the evening, and eventually becoming light & variable
tonight. Winds turn to the south Thursday PM and eventually
southwest by end of the period. Light snow will begin to move
in Thursday mid-late morning. Visibilities will decrease, but
should stay primarily VFR. Future TAFs can adjust the timing &
categories when confidence increases to do so. Accumulations
will be minor, typically a dusting/coating.

KMSP... Light snow and MVFR cigs arrive late Thursday morning.
It may be necessary to include TEMPO groups with MVFR vsby for
heavier bursts of snow Thursday afternoon/evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MVFR/-SN likely, chance IFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts.
SAT...VFR chc MVFR/-SN. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts.
SUN...VFR chc MVFR/-SN. Wind SW 10-15G25 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...BPH