Mankato, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

377
FXUS63 KMPX 111941
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
241 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Big warmup arrives tomorrow through the remainder of the week.

- A few strong to severe storms are possible tomorrow afternoon
  for western Wisconsin. A better chance for severe storms for
  much of south central Minnesota/western Wisconsin is expected
  Monday and possibly again on Tuesday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

It`s a cool and damp Saturday as scattered showers continue to
slide eastward across Minnesota and Wisconsin. These showers and
maybe a rumble of thunder will continue into the evening and
overnight hours, especially for portions of western Wisconsin. A
southwesterly LLJ will kick in this evening, sending a plume of
Gulf moisture northward. Continued cloud cover and very strong
WAA will allow temperatures to gradually increase overnight. A
majority of the forecast area will likely be sitting with both
temperatures and dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s by
morning. We`ll have to see how quickly clouds clear out Sunday,
but it seems likely that highs will be some 30 degrees warmer
than today in the upper 70s and low 80s. Winds will turn from
the south to the west by the afternoon, which will work to lower
dew points by 5 to 10 degrees for western Minnesota. There`s a
chance that portions of our far southwest see min RH values fall
below 30% during the afternoon and evening with wind gusts
approaching 30 MPH, but for now, it appears that the risk for
elevated fire weather conditions will remain back across the
Dakotas. To the east where Tds remain in the 60s, there is a
question of whether any afternoon convection will be able to
develop. A lot rides on the timing of a weak shortwave and how
long morning showers and clouds stick around. Still, CAMs have
CAPE values AOA 1500 J/kg and ample shear, so a stronger storm
or two is a possibility, especially for western Wisconsin. SPC
has a Marginal Risk in the SWODY2 that covers this threat.

A more favorable severe weather set up is still in the cards for
Monday. A warm front will lift northward during the afternoon with
PWATs increasing to around 1", which is around 200% of normal. Mid
level lapse rates are impressive, but strong capping may limit storm
development initially. There is a fair amount of spread in the
guidance in how far northward the warm front will push, with the
AIFS keeping southern Minnesota in the low to mid 60s and the RRFS
taking upper 70s as far north as St. Cloud. All of this to say,
there is still a high degree of uncertainty in the forecast for
Monday. Tuesday looks like a similar scenario, but likely even
further south and east of our CWA. But again, some strong to severe
storms can`t be ruled out entirely at this point. The remainder of
the week remains mild with temperatures in the 70s. We`ll see
continued chances for showers and thunderstorms throughout the work
week. Looking ahead, a stronger system may be in the works for the
weekend and I can`t guarantee that all precip associated with
this will fall as liquid...

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Widespread mid-level stratocumulus clouds to remain across the
area through the rest of the afternoon. Clouds will lower in
height, likely reaching MVFR levels by late afternoon if not
early evening then continuing to drop to IFR levels overnight
through sunrise Sunday. Passing intermittent showers to continue
through sunset, with more steady rain looking likely this
evening before drying conditions expected overnight through most
of Sunday. Instability is hard to come by for convection to
develop so have opted to omit CB/TS mention at this time but
will monitor radar trends going forward. Breezy SE winds will
continue into the early morning hours, then slowly veer to S and
SW. Strong nocturnal jetting aloft in advance of a northward-
moving warm front will create a sufficient vector difference
aloft to produce and advertise LLWS conditions overnight.

KMSP...Intermittent showers to persist through the evening
hours, potentially becoming a bit more steady between sunset and
midnight. No CB/TS expected at this time but will monitor and
amend as needed based on radar trends. MVFR ceilings likely
later this afternoon through this evening, dropping to IFR
levels for several hours overnight before ceilings increase back
to MVFR. LLWS conditions likely for much of the early morning
hours through the Sunday morning push.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...AM VFR. PM -RA likely, chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind NE 5-10 kts
becoming SE.
TUE...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
WED...Mainly VFR. Slgt chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind W 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...JPC